Assessing the Global Pest Risk of Aeolesthes sarta with Regards to the Host Specie Populus alba under Climate Change Scenarios

Aeolesthes sarta or Trirachys is a polyphagous long-horned beetle that has caused severe damage to the Populus alba forests/plantations in its regions of origin. Climate change could accelerate introduction and spread invasive pest species, potentially causing ecological economic losses. Furthermore, globalization increased trade can inadvertently transport pests across borders into where they do not already occur. Hence, it crucial identify areas climate most suitable for establishment A. sarta’s which world are growth P. under scenarios. This study employed CLIMEX model estimate potential global distribution correlation with dominant host, alba, current climatic conditions future scenarios, namely A1B A2 scenarios (CCSs). Under conditions, indicates climatically habitat extends beyond known range. The estimated that, world’s 41.06% provide (EI > 0) survival sarta. For present all continents (excluding Antarctica); 53.52% 0). will significantly alter number habitats development globally. In capable supplying slightly decrease 40.14% (under CCSs), while, also marginally 50.39% scenario), this figure drop 48.41% scenario) by end century (2100). Asia, Europe, North America, South Oceania have high percentage highly conditions; however, according estimates century, only growth. range likely increase northern hemisphere; expected shrink regards southern hemisphere. contraction was higher scenario due warming trend than scenario. Due change, shifted, as did range, which, thanks environmental makes those vulnerable Strict monitoring, prevention, control measures at borders, airports, seaports before other host species wood (logs/billets) recommended prevent ensure biodiversity security. It models presented here be useful management purposes since both adapted guide decisions about imparting resources threat invasion remains away from suitability predicted future.